I’m sorry Ms. Warkentin, you did not “crack the youth code”.

In a recent speech given by Juliet Warkentin, Content Director for leading fashion trend forecasting company, WGSN, (check out her blog here) the ability to “crack the youth trend code” using online social communities is discussed.

Analysis of youth trends and cultures published by popular media and orchestrated by leading “youth” market research firms is often conducted, hilariously enough by individuals far removed from actual youth culture. It is one thing to conduct research with youth, and it is another thing to conduct research as a youth (for disclosure purposes I am 23 years old). In a meeting yesterday with a leading advertising and design firm, we were discussing the lack of intuition among popular market researchers and the negative impact of this reflected in their methodologies. This is such a crucial point. An individual who is not actually living among the youth is going to have a harder time reacting to and identifying percolating trends.

Fact.

I understand experience is a necessary attribute for many things. However, when youth culture is being discussed at major conferences, or in corporate business meetings, there is generally one thing missing: THE YOUTH.

Reading the summarization of Juliet Warkentin’s “Crack the Youth Code to Unlock the Future”, (here) it was hard not to laugh and shake my head. Her main thesis? Today’s youth is soliciting and gathering fashion advice and making purchasing decisions primarily (and in the future maybe SOLELY) from social networking sites such as Myspace, Facebook, and Twitter. I disagree with this theory and her subsequent analysis. Let’s take a closer look at some of her key points:

“This group [the youth] communicates, participates, and collaborates more than any other…At the heart of this is the power of social networking…”

Social networking is not at the heart of this. In fact as a member of Facebook for over 5 years I have witnessed an increased privatization of online social interaction. Most interaction is between close friends and family, rather than including the public online community. This actually limits the overall communication and collaboration between youths. Myspace is regionally cool and uncool among the youth and Twitter has yet to even enter the youth’s social networking sphere.

“People will soon use social networking to source opinion and advice from the masses…”

Yes, this is called crowd-sourcing. Successful crowd-sourcing companies such as Threadless are incredibly niche. I foresee more growth in niche areas such as fashion or technology in gathering advice, but as social media fatigue continues to settle in, crowd-sourcing may not be the best viable option for every company.

“Opinion is formed and identities built on Facebook, Bebo, Twitter and Ning…”

Let’s be realistic. Identities may be formed and built online, but the youth is not not simply a twitter name or a Facebook page. People may gather opinions and ideas from social networks, but it’s the actual real-life implementation that drives trends. It’s more rational to say that youth interact with friends, family & traditional media in the real-world and THEN take these ideas back to social networks and spread the word. Trends are driven forward in a more cyclical manner from online to the real-world, rather than simply linearly online.

A few key summaries and business implications:

• Privatization and social media fatigue among the youth will make it harder for companies to make connections using social media. Do not solely rely on social media. This is marketing suicide.

• Crowd-sourcing must be done organically and not forced upon youth consumers. Successful crowd-sourcing is generally derived from consumer demand, not company supply. Crowd-sourcing will be successful in niche categories by the “right” companies.

• Personal style and trends among the youth may be displayed online, but is still driven by real-life interactions. A healthy balance of actual real-life immersion and online social media immersion in youth environments is key doing successful youth market research.

Please chime in with comments, critiques or questions.